New Zealand Parole Board -

Publication of the name, address and occupation

or identifying particulars of the victim prohibited

Parole Hearing

Under section 21(2) of the Parole Act 2002

and

Hearing for Postponement Order

27(4)(b) of the Parole Act 2002

Paul David BAILEY

Hearing: 28 January 2025

On the papers

Members of the Board:

Mr N Trendle – Panel Convenor

Mr A Hackney

Dr J Ioane

DECISION OF THE BOARD

1. Paul David Bailey was sentenced to life imprisonment on 27 February 1992 for the murder and rape of his young victim.  He was subsequently convicted of attempted rape of an adult woman victim and serious sexual offending against a victim who was under the age of 16.
2. Since his sentencing, he participated in the Child Sex Offender Programme but was exited from the maintenance group.  He subsequently participated in two brief periods of individual psychological counselling, and he appears to have retained an intellectual understanding of his offence process.  Mr Bailey currently holds a minimum-security classification.  There appear to be no concerns with his conduct or compliance.
3. A psychological assessment completed in December last year assessed Mr Bailey as falling in a group of offenders who pose a well above average risk of further sexual offending and a high risk of violent reoffending.  He demonstrated knowledge of his risk factors and skills and strategies to manage them and the psychologist was of the view that no further psychological intervention was warranted.  His ongoing pattern of prison misconducts indicated difficulty in maintaining treatment gains, however.  Mr Bailey should continue to review, update and continue to practice his skills and strategies. Once he had done so consistently for 18 months to 2 years, he would benefit from formally transitioning to reintegration activities.
4. The psychological report concluded with a recommendation that with his release likely to be in the North Island, he should be considered for a transfer to a prison to allow him to develop relationships with staff before commencing outside the wire and employment.  [withheld].
5. Prior to the scheduled hearing, the Board met with several of the victims of Mr Bailey's offending.  They again expressed the view that he remained a danger to women in the community, and their opposition to his release.  When he left prison, he should not be permitted to enter the South Island where they are live and work.  They were also of the view that he should be subject to a postponement order.
6. Mr Bailey elected not to attend today's hearing.  He filed a written waiver, although no reason for his nonattendance was provided.  He had been given notice that, pursuant to section 27 of the Parole Act 2002, the Board would be considering making a postponement order at today's hearing.  Despite being advised of his right to do so, he made no submissions on that matter.
7. Mr Bailey has made very limited progress on reducing his risk of re-offending since his sentencing some 33 years ago.  He has expressed his opposition to being transferred to another prison and maintains a wish to be deported to the United Kingdom.  Moreover, we note that in July last year he returned a positive drug test for the consumption of cannabis.
8. There is no basis before us today that would lead the Board to be satisfied that Mr Bailey's risk to the safety of the community is other than undue.  Parole is declined.
9. When it comes to considering whether we should make a postponement order, there is no information before us that would lead the Board to consider that any change in his circumstances is likely for the foreseeable future.   We have concluded that unless there is a significant change in his circumstances, he will not be suitable for release for the next five years.  Accordingly, we make a postponement order for that period with the next parole hearing to be held by 27 January 2030.  Should, however, his circumstances significantly change, Mr Bailey can apply to return to the Board earlier.

Mr N Trendle

Panel Convenor